USAID, BRELL, and other acronyms

Today in the space between war and peace...

• How the collapse of USAID benefits Putin
• Is this the end of U.S. soft power?
• Baltics brace for cyberattacks as they leave the Russian grid
• Estonians buy generators and stock up on water amid disinformation about BRELL in the Baltic States
• Latvian interior minister warns of possible acts of sabotage from Russia
• Denmark increases inspections to monitor Russia's 'shadow fleet'
• Putin's disinformation networks inundate social media to manipulate German election
• The upcoming surge in drone combat expertise

How the collapse of USAID benefits Putin

The Trump administration’s aid freeze poses a threat to Ukraine's energy security and its peace efforts with Russia, according to commentary from Semafor. USAID's essential support for rebuilding Ukraine's energy grid and transitioning to cleaner energy sources has been halted. This freeze impacts infrastructure repairs, investor confidence, and U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. While there are alternatives being considered, such as donations from the EU and private investments, the freeze complicates global climate projects and has drawn criticism from U.S. lawmakers.

Is this the end of U.S. soft power?

An essay from GZERO claims USAID's sudden shutdown signifies a decline in U.S. soft power, a concept famously described by Joseph Nye as the ability to influence through attraction rather than coercion. Critics have labeled the agency as corrupt, which has led to its integration into the State Department. This shift could benefit countries like China and Russia, as U.S. influence diminishes globally. Some allies, such as Canada, feel betrayed by Trump's hard power tactics, including threats of tariffs, which strain diplomatic relations. Consequently, these allies now need to develop their own soft power strategies to effectively navigate U.S. relations and avoid economic repercussions.

Baltics brace for cyberattacks as they leave the Russian grid

Politico Europe reports the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are proactively preparing for potential cyber threats to their energy grids. They are implementing measures such as removing VPN access and installing anti-drone systems. Authorities are coordinating their efforts and developing contingencies to address technical challenges. Energy officials are emphasizing the importance of being prepared for possible cyberattacks. This heightened concern is largely due to Russia's known capabilities for interfering with foreign power grids.

Latvian interior minister warns of possible acts of sabotage from Russia

Latvian Interior Minister Kozlovskis highlighted the importance of resilience within society in light of potential risks, including sabotage related to the Baltic States' disconnection from the Russian power grid. He referenced recent incidents in Estonia as cautionary examples. Although no sabotage related to the so-called “Baltic Synchro” has been detected so far, Latvia is maintaining its vigilance by inspecting infrastructure personnel and improving detection systems.

Estonians buy generators and stock up on water amid disinformation about BRELL in the Baltic States

The Baltic States are set to disconnect from the Russian BRELL network and connect to the European energy grid, which will enhance their energy security. The Baltic News Network reports that there is rising anxiety in Estonia, fueled by disinformation regarding false claims of a 72-hour power outage. The government has refuted these claims, but disinformation continues to circulate online, leading to a spike in generator purchases. The public is advised to prepare for emergencies, but there are no imminent outages expected. This disinformation takes advantage of genuine concerns, resulting in unnecessary panic.

Putin's disinformation networks inundate social media to manipulate German election

Russian bots, via the Kremlin-backed Doppelgänger operation, are spreading disinformation on X ahead of Germany's election. Using fake sites and AI-generated content, they've targeted German support for Ukraine and promoted pro-Kremlin narratives. Ghost accounts on X have spiked in activity, employing "overload" disinformation tactics. Doppelgänger clones legitimate media sites to post false stories during politically sensitive times. Germany, with its counter-disinformation efforts, collaborates internationally and considers sanctions against these campaigns, particularly as the AfD gains in polls.

Denmark increases inspections to monitor Russia's 'shadow fleet'

Denmark's maritime authority will enhance inspections of oil tankers to target Russia's "shadow fleet," which is suspected of conducting underwater sabotage in the Baltic Sea. This shadow fleet, associated with Russia's sanctioned crude oil exports, poses risks to both seafarers and the environment.

The upcoming surge in drone combat expertise

Drone expertise gained from the Russo-Ukrainian war may contribute to increased political and criminal violence worldwide. Weaponized drones are becoming more accessible and are being utilized in conflict zones. The U.S. and its allies must enhance counter-drone defenses, involve civilian agencies, and engage drone experts after the war to prevent misuse of this technology. Past global initiatives, such as Project Paperclip, provide useful parallels. If we fail to take action, the U.S. may remain unprepared for domestic threats related to drone technology.