Ukraine Unbroken

Today, in the space between war and peace…

• Analysis: Russia’s Failure to Break Ukraine
• Russia’s Escalating Sabotage Activities Across Europe
• Moldova’s Stand Against Kremlin Influence
• Psychological Defense: Countering Fear
• Australia Bans Kaspersky Software Over Espionage Concerns
• EU Sanctions North Korean Official Linked to Lazarus Group
• China-Linked Hackers Target European Healthcare Organizations
• China’s Strategic Exploitation of Gray Zones
• Assessing the Resilience of ‘Digital Tuvalu’ Against Cyber Threats

Analysis: Russia’s Failure to Break Ukraine

From the Institute for the Study of War: Russia's military offensives in Ukraine throughout 2024 have not resulted in significant gains, despite considerable deployment of troops and equipment across various fronts. Russian forces have captured primarily small settlements, with the largest having a pre-war population of just over 31,000. The campaign has led to high casualties, with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting over 434,000 Russian casualties this year, including 150,000 killed in action. This represents about 104 Russian casualties for each square kilometer gained. The ISW notes that such losses are unsustainable for Russia without a major mobilization effort, which President Vladimir Putin has not pursued. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued to repel significant Russian offensives even with limited Western aid. The ISW indicates that ongoing Western support could allow Ukraine to achieve further victories, potentially prompting a reassessment of Russia's strategy and negotiations by Putin.

Russia’s Escalating Sabotage Activities Across Europe

From Foreign Policy: Russia has intensified its sabotage and disruption activities across Europe since early 2024. These efforts include cyberattacks, energy infrastructure assaults, and physical sabotage, such as arson incidents in Lithuania and London. Analysts suggest these actions aim to test Europe’s communications and emergency preparedness, potentially compromising stability in future conflicts. Concerns have emerged regarding a recent shift in U.S. policy towards partnering with Russia, leading to fears of increased Russian disruptive actions, particularly if a favorable settlement for Russia is brokered in Ukraine. This situation underscores the need for Europe to enhance its resilience against hybrid warfare tactics.

Moldova’s Stand Against Kremlin Influence

According to Peter Pomerantsev, writing in The Observer: Moldova, a country with a population of 2.4 million, is actively resisting Russian influence amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite facing economic challenges and external pressures, Moldova remains committed to preserving its sovereignty and strengthening ties with Western nations, which may serve as a model for other countries facing similar threats.

Psychological Defense: Countering Fear

In an article for ERR News, Professor Andreas Ventsel from the University of Tartu discusses the critical role of psychological defense in Estonia's national security strategy. He argues that in light of geopolitical tensions and information warfare, such defense mechanisms help prevent panic, counter hostile influence, and maintain public trust. Ventsel points out that fear can exacerbate information manipulation and stresses the need for a deep understanding of cultural narratives and strategic communication to enhance social cohesion and resilience. He calls for collaboration among government, the private sector, and academia to create effective narratives that unify various societal groups and bolster the nation's psychological defenses.

Australia Bans Kaspersky Software Over Espionage Concerns

From The Record: Australia has banned the use of Kaspersky Lab's cybersecurity software in government agencies, citing concerns about potential foreign interference and national security risks. Agencies must remove existing Kaspersky products by April. This decision aligns with similar actions taken by other Five Eyes alliance members, including the U.S., U.K., and Canada. Kaspersky expressed disappointment over the lack of consultation and technical assessment prior to the ban but plans to continue serving other customers in Australia and is willing to work with government agencies to address security concerns.

EU Sanctions North Korean Official Linked to Lazarus Group

From The Record: The European Union has sanctioned Lee Chang Ho, the head of North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB), for deploying personnel to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine. Lee is known for overseeing cyberattack units, including the Lazarus and Kimsuky groups, and coordinating North Korean troops for unconventional warfare in Ukraine. The EU's sanctions also extend to individuals and media outlets involved in pro-Russian propaganda against Ukraine. Lee has faced previous sanctions from South Korea and the U.S. due to his connections with North Korean intelligence. Researchers link the majority of North Korea’s cyber operations, including espionage and financial crimes, to the RGB.

China-Linked Hackers Target European Healthcare Organizations

From The Record: A previously unidentified hacking group called Green Nailao, suspected of ties to Chinese state-backed actors, has targeted European healthcare organizations in a cyber-espionage campaign during the latter half of 2024. Researchers from Orange Cyberdefense reported that the attackers exploited a vulnerability in Check Point’s Security Gateway to steal user credentials and access virtual private networks. The group utilized malware strains ShadowPad and PlugX, commonly linked to Chinese cyber-espionage, and introduced a new ransomware variant named NailaoLocker, which encrypts files and demands Bitcoin payments via a ProtonMail address. This unusual use of ransomware for state-sponsored operations suggests motives of financial gain or distraction from data theft efforts, continuing the trend of the healthcare sector being a frequent target for state-backed hackers.

China’s Strategic Exploitation of Gray Zones

From Small Wars Journal: In “China’s Securing, Shaping, and Exploitation of Strategic Spaces: Gray Zone Response and Counter-Shi Strategies,” Dr. Robert J. Bunker analyzes China's use of gray zone tactics to extend its influence without direct conflict. The book focuses on the strategies of the Chinese Communist Party under President Xi Jinping, examining both domestic and international policies. Bunker discusses the incremental approach, known as "salami slicing," that China employs to change the status quo in contested areas, particularly in the South and East China Seas. It also outlines potential counterstrategies for other nations to effectively address these unconventional tactics, providing insights relevant to policymakers, military strategists, and scholars.

Assessing the Resilience of ‘Digital Tuvalu’ Against Cyber Threats

From The Diplomat: Tuvalu aims to become the world's first digital nation, but faces significant cybersecurity challenges. Recent cyberattacks in the Pacific region, particularly targeting Palau’s government and the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, highlight vulnerabilities in digital infrastructure, with allegations of involvement from Chinese state-backed groups. Tuvalu’s initiative involves digitizing governance and essential services to protect its cultural identity amid climate change threats, but this transition increases exposure to cyber risks. The 2023 Lagatoi Declaration calls for improved digital infrastructure in the Pacific. To enhance cybersecurity, amendments to the Falepili Union agreement with Australia are suggested, mandating support for Tuvalu’s cyber defense capabilities. The Pacific Security Outlook Report (2023-2024) points to challenges like limited operational capacity and inconsistent funding that contribute to a high rate of cyberattacks in the region. Addressing these challenges is essential for Tuvalu to protect its digital assets and maintain sovereignty.