Listen all y'all, it's a sabotage!

Matt -

Today in the space between war and peace...

  • Norwegian Intelligence Expects Sabotage by Russia in 2025
  • German Police Suspect Russian Involvement in Car Sabotage
  • Undersea Cable Attacks on the Rise

Norwegian Intelligence Expects Sabotage by Russia in 2025

Norwegian intelligence has warned that Russia may attempt sabotage in Norway in 2025, specifically targeting energy infrastructure or aid to Ukraine. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, relations between Oslo and Moscow have deteriorated. A NATO member, Norway shares a border with Russia and has become the European Union's leading supplier of natural gas since the war began. This places Norwegian infrastructure at risk of sabotage.

German Police Suspect Russian Involvement in Car Sabotage

German police are investigating allegations that Russia is orchestrating a sabotage campaign aimed at discrediting environmentalists and the Green Party. Over 270 cars in Germany were found with their exhausts blocked by foam, and some suspects have claimed they were paid by a Russian individual for these acts. Stickers associated with Green Party leader Robert Habeck were discovered on the damaged vehicles. The Green Party has accused authoritarian regimes, such as Russia, of attempting to weaken Germany. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has warned about hybrid threats, but investigations are still ongoing, and there is no official confirmation of Russia's involvement.

Undersea Cable Attacks on the Rise

The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor reports on recent trends regarding attacks on undersea cables. According to the report, since 2021, there has been an increase in Russian hybrid attacks on undersea infrastructure, particularly fiber-optic cables, in the Baltic and Arctic regions. These attacks threaten communication channels in Northern Europe. Incidents involving Chinese vessels in 2023 and 2024 suggest a possible collaboration between Russia and China, although there is insufficient evidence to confirm this, making Western deterrence efforts more difficult. These attacks utilize plausible deniability and operate below the threshold of war, which poses challenges for Western responses. While new deterrence strategies are being developed, Russia's low-cost disruptive tactics are likely to persist.